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April 14, 2014

A Closer Look at CAPE Ratio

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When estimating returns, we know that current valuations provide valuable information. The earnings yield derived from the Shiller CAPE 10—the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio—is considered by many to be at least as good, if not better, than other metrics. It...

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Beware Lure of Market Timing

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Market-timing strategies attempt to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy by anticipating the future direction of a market. They can work, but mostly they don’t. First, such strategies are based on the belief that future security prices are predictable, typically through the...

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Risk & The Two Faces Of Beta

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There’s a growing body of evidence that beta is actually a two-sided, not a one-sided, “coin,” and those two faces are separated by perceptions of risk. Being risk averse, most investors care more than just about the standard deviation of...

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