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Asset Allocation Guide: Dealing with conflicting goals

Date12 Mar 2014

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Today we conclude our series on how best to make asset allocation decisions. It’s an easy decision when the analysis of your ability, willingness and need to take risk leads to the same conclusion. For example, one can have a high ability and willingness to take risk but little need. In that case, the answer is simple: Because the marginal...

Reversion To The Mean Phenomenon: Part IV

Date12 Mar 2014

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This final post of the RTM series will explore the importance of discipline. The academic evidence demonstrates that the determinant of almost all of the risk and return of a portfolio is its asset allocation. It’s important to add that because of recency, the most important determinant of the return that an investor’s portfolio actually produces might...

Reversion To The Mean Phenomenon: Part III

Date12 Mar 2014

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Our last post looked at the issue of what is expected to happen as a country migrates from frontier to developed markets. We should expect to see the cost of capital fall in such a country. Among the reasons is that regulatory regimes, including protections for foreign investors, are typically strengthened. The falling equity risk premium demanded...

Reversion To The Mean Phenomenon: Part II

Date12 Mar 2014

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My prior post explored the ninth wonder of the world: reversion to the mean. Today, we continue the discussion on this phenomenon. Forecasting stock returns is a more difficult task than forecasting bond returns. While the relationship only holds at long horizons, what we do know is that valuation metrics such as P/E ratios have had an...

Reversion to the Mean Phenomenon: Part I

Date12 Mar 2014

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The Seven Wonders of the Ancient World is a list of remarkable constructions of antiquity. They are the Great Pyramid of Giza, the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, the Temple of Artemis at Ephesus, the Statue of Zeus at Olympia, the Mausoleum at Halicarnassus, the Colossus of Rhodes and the Pharos of Alexandria. Benjamin Franklin...

The Dividend-ETF Trap

Date12 Mar 2014

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Over the last few years we’ve seen a dramatic increase in interest in dividend-paying stocks. The heightened interest has been fueled by both the media hype and the current regime of interest rates that are well below historical averages. The low yields available on safe bonds led even many once-conservative investors to shift...

Faint Praise For 130/30 Funds

Date12 Mar 2014

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Hedged (long/short) mutual funds are the money management industry’s answer to illiquid hedge fund strategies. The premise of long/short funds is that the managers can apply their security-selection skills to a broader opportunity set, which is to say they can go both long and short, instead of long only. The broader opportunity set should make...

The Secret to Picking Actively Managed Mutual Funds

Date12 Mar 2014

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If you are a regular reader of my blog, you know I recommend against buying anyactively managed mutual fund. Instead, I advise investing in a globally diversified portfolio of low-management-fee index funds, passively managed funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), in an asset allocation suitable for you. Investors are looking at the data and getting the message. According...

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